The Obama Years (2009–2016)
Obama inherited the lowest gas prices in years — $2.35 in 2009 — but that was a consequence of the 2008 financial crisis crushing global demand, not policy. Crude oil had crashed from $147/barrel in July 2008 to under $40 by December.
Prices recovered steadily through 2012, when they averaged $3.64 — the highest of his presidency. Iran sanctions under Obama removed Iranian oil from global markets, tightening supply. The Arab Spring in 2011 took Libyan oil offline (1.6M barrels/day). Both drove prices up regardless of US domestic policy.
The second Obama term saw a dramatic reversal. US shale production — which grew from 5M barrels/day in 2008 to over 9M by 2015 — flooded global markets. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, refused to cut production in a bet to drive shale producers out of business on price. The result: crude crashed from $110 to under $30. Obama left office with gas at $2.14 — the lowest since 2004.
Trump's First Term (2017–2020)
Trump entered office as prices were recovering from the OPEC-shale war lows. OPEC+ (with Russia now formally coordinating) began cutting supply in 2017, gradually pushing prices back up. By October 2018, gas averaged $2.91 nationally — and Trump responded with a famous tweet demanding Saudi Arabia lower prices immediately.
2019 saw slight relief as US shale kept setting production records, offsetting OPEC+ discipline. Then 2020 happened.
COVID-19 destroyed demand at a scale not seen since the Great Depression. In April 2020, WTI futures briefly traded at negative $37/barrel — meaning producers were paying people to take oil — because storage tanks were full and demand had collapsed. The annual average landed at $2.17, the second lowest of any year since 2004.
The Biden Years (2021–2024)
Biden took office as the world was reopening from COVID, with demand surging but supply slow to follow. OPEC+ was cautious about adding supply back — they'd been burned by the 2020 collapse and didn't trust the recovery. US shale also moved more slowly than pre-COVID; investors had lost billions and were demanding capital discipline over production growth.
Then in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In March 2022, gas hit $4.33/gallon — the highest nominal price ever recorded at that point. Russia supplies ~10% of global crude and 20% of European natural gas. Sanctions removed Russian supply from markets; European buyers scrambled for alternatives, driving up global prices.
Biden's response included the largest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — 180 million barrels over six months — and diplomatic pressure on Saudi Arabia. Prices began falling in the summer of 2022 and continued declining through 2023–2024 as the global supply situation normalized and recession fears dampened demand.
Biden left with gas around $3.07/gallon — lower than the 2022 peak but significantly above the $2.39 average when he entered office. Republicans called this proof of Biden's failure; Democrats argued the Ukraine war made the spike unavoidable.
The Bottom Line: How Much Does the President Actually Matter?
Less than the political discourse suggests — but not zero.
The biggest drivers of gas prices are global crude oil supply and demand: OPEC+ production decisions, recessions, wars, and recovery cycles. These dwarf anything a president can do in the short term. Obama's low prices at the end of his term were OPEC's price war against shale, not his policy. Biden's $4+ gas in 2022 was Russia invading Ukraine. Trump's cheap gas in 2020 was a pandemic.
What presidents can influence over longer periods:
- Domestic production policy: Permitting, leasing, pipeline approvals affect long-run supply. Effects take years, not weeks.
- SPR releases: Short-term supply injection. Effective for months, not sustainable as policy.
- Sanctions and foreign policy: Removing Iranian or Venezuelan supply tightens markets; relaxing sanctions adds supply. Real effect but complex tradeoffs.
- Fuel economy standards: Long-run demand-side effect. Higher MPG requirements reduce how much gas Americans consume per mile driven over decades.
The honest answer: presidents get more credit and more blame for gas prices than they deserve. The oil market is global, and no single leader controls it.