Why are gas prices going up right now?

Brent crude oil has spiked above $100 per barrel due to Middle East geopolitical concerns and OPEC+ production discipline. Refinery maintenance on the US Gulf Coast is also tightening gasoline supply. These factors combined typically push the national average gas price higher within one to two weeks.

Which states will see the biggest price impact?

Texas, Louisiana, and other Gulf Coast states will likely see the earliest and sharpest increases, since that's where US refining capacity is concentrated. California and the Northeast may lag by a few days but will ultimately see similar increases. Midwest states supplied by inland refining will see moderate impacts.

How long will gas prices stay high?

If Brent remains above $100, expect elevated prices to persist for at least 3–4 weeks. However, if crude pulls back below $95, relief could come within 7–10 days. Monitor weekly API inventory reports and OPEC+ announcements for signals on whether this move is temporary or structural.

Brent Crude Jumps Above $100 a Barrel, Gas Prices Set to Rise

Oil's climb past the $100 threshold signals potential retail pump increases across US regions in coming days.

What's Happening

Brent crude oil has broken back above the $100-per-barrel mark, marking a significant upward move in global energy markets. This jump reflects renewed supply concerns and shifting geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East. The surge comes amid tightening global crude inventories and signals that the recent period of relative oil stability may be ending.

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Why It Matters at the Pump

When Brent crude rises, US retail gas prices typically follow within 7–14 days, though the lag varies by region and refinery location. A $100 Brent price typically translates to national average gas prices in the $3.00–$3.30 per gallon range, depending on refining capacity and seasonal demand. Drivers in Gulf Coast states—where most US refining happens—often feel the impact first, while California and the Northeast, which import finished gasoline, may see delays. Fleet operators and commuters should watch price per gallon carefully over the next two weeks, as momentum could accelerate if crude remains elevated.

What's Driving This

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a primary driver, with markets pricing in supply disruption risk. OPEC+ production discipline and reports of inventory draws across major trading hubs are supporting the $100 level. Seasonal spring demand is also beginning to pick up ahead of the summer driving season, putting underlying support under crude. Refinery maintenance schedules in the US Gulf Coast are reducing available processing capacity, amplifying the effect of any supply tightness on gasoline output.

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What Drivers Should Expect

Analysts expect the national average gas price to climb 10–25 cents per gallon over the next 10–14 days if Brent holds above $100. The exact timing and magnitude will depend on whether crude breaks higher or stabilizes at current levels. Savvy drivers should consider filling up sooner rather than later—use GasBuddy or AAA's gas tracker to find the cheapest nearby stations today, as prices are likely to tick upward before the weekend. Fleet managers should review fuel-hedging strategies and consider locking in supplies if contracts allow.

Historical Context

Brent above $100 hasn't been the norm for the past 18 months, making this move a notable shift. The last sustained period above $100 was tied to Russia-Ukraine supply disruption fears. Today's move suggests markets are reassessing both near-term and medium-term supply risk, signaling that the era of sub-$95 crude may be behind us for now.