US drivers went to the polls for the 2026 midterm election paying more for gasoline than on any previous Election Day, according to an analysis by Michael A. Mische, an associate professor at the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, published by Fortune on November 6, 2026. AAA's national average price for regular unleaded was $4.15 a gallon as of Nov. 3, 2026, up almost 40% from $2.98 in February. The analysis attributes the increase to the war with Iran. It argues that high prices at the pump, along with grocery costs and an unpopular war, helped turn voters against the party in power.
What pushed prices up in 2026
According to the report, US military action against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, disrupted Middle Eastern oil production and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The report says about 20% of global oil supplies travel through the strait, and that it has been closed, or nearly so, for much of 2026 as the conflict drags on. It also notes that more than 60% of the world's crude oil moves by ocean tanker. That helps explain why even oil companies have less influence over prices than people might think.
Shipments through the strait dropped sharply at first. By the end of September, they had recovered to 82% to 92% of prewar levels, the report says. Overall, Middle Eastern crude oil exports are averaging around 24 million barrels a day. That is above prewar levels, partly because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are moving more oil by pipeline.
The report doesn't say where gasoline prices are headed next, and it offers no forecast.
Prices before the war
During the first 12 months of President Donald Trump's second term, gas prices had been easing, according to the report. Crude oil prices fell 4.5%. US oil production rose 3.3%, from 13.3 million to 13.7 million barrels per day. AAA's national average for regular unleaded fell 4.5%, from $3.12 to $2.98 a gallon.
Why gas prices matter to voters
The analysis notes that crude oil and gasoline prices are set on global markets by supply and demand. Many of the factors behind them are beyond the control of a president or Congress. Even so, the report says rising energy costs tend to push up other prices, such as food, and sudden spikes in gasoline can add to inflation both regionally and nationally. It adds that voters notice these changes and that incumbents are less likely to win reelection when they do.
According to the report, voters held Trump accountable for high gasoline and grocery prices and the war, as preelection polling had suggested. It describes the midterm results as overwhelming. It does not give seat counts for 2026.
A look back at past midterms
The report places 2026 alongside several earlier elections in which fuel prices and inflation were in the spotlight.
The 1970s
After Arab members of OPEC cut production and imposed an embargo on the US following the October 1973 Yom Kippur War, crude prices jumped 184%, from $4.31 to $10.31 a barrel by March 1974. US gasoline prices rose 32% despite federal price controls. In the 1974 midterms, with inflation at 12.3%, Republicans lost 48 House seats and five Senate seats. In 1978, with inflation at 9%, Democrats lost 15 House seats and three Senate seats.
The 1980s
By the mid-1980s, more oil production from the US and non-OPEC nations created a glut that lowered crude and gasoline prices, the report says. Even with crude at $15 a barrel and gas at 82 cents a gallon before the 1986 midterms, Republicans lost five House seats and eight Senate seats.
2018 and 2022
From January 2017 to October 2018, crude prices rose about 24% and gas prices rose 22%, according to the report, and Republicans lost 41 House seats in 2018 while gaining two Senate seats. In June 2022, US gasoline hit an all-time high of $4.929 a gallon, with inflation at 9.1%. Democrats lost nine House seats and one Senate seat that year. The report says this shows energy prices aren't the only thing on voters' minds.
Based on reporting by Fortune, published November 6, 2026. Gas prices change quickly and vary by station.